Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 13 at the 79

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(3:59) 19-B.Anger punts 51 yards to HOU 28, Center-46-C.Tinker. 2-B.Daniels to HOU 31 for 3 yards (29-J.Banyard; 57-T.Armbrister). PENALTY on HOU-43-C.Moore, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 31.

The Three Options

GO -3.02 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +0.96 EP
71% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 79, worth -4.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model