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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 11 at the 11

Houston Texans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(5:27) 8-N.Novak 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +2.20 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.85 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 11, worth +0.65 EP
KICK +2.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.90 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 22, worth -0.10 EP
PUNT +0.65 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model