4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 42

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(9:01) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete short middle to 80-J.Thomas (93-J.Crick).

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.01 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 42, worth -2.60 EP
KICK -0.72 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -3.07 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model