4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 12 at the 29

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Houston Texans 30

What Actually Happened

(1:18) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 11-M.Lee to HOU 15 for 14 yards (51-J.Simon).

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
What Happened
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +3.86 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 29, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.72 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 39, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.32 EP