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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 33

Houston Texans 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 6

What Actually Happened

(3:28) 8-N.Novak 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.43 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 33, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 43, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model