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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 32

Houston Texans 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 6

What Actually Happened

(11:19) 8-N.Novak 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.28 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 32, worth -1.94 EP
KICK +0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 42, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.84 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model