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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 13 at the 16

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Houston Texans 20

What Actually Happened

(:46) 2-J.Myers 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.30 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 16, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +2.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.59 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 26, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT +0.54 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model