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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 46

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Houston Texans 20

What Actually Happened

(9:59) 19-B.Anger punts 35 yards to HOU 11, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 2-B.Daniels.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.71 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.69 EP
KICK -0.95 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 13, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model