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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 68

Houston Texans 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(12:24) 9-S.Lechler punts 39 yards to JAX 29, Center-46-J.Weeks. 13-R.Greene pushed ob at JAX 39 for 10 yards (21-D.Morris).

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.28 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 68, worth -3.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 26, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model