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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 74

Houston Texans 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(8:54) 9-S.Lechler punts 52 yards to JAX 22, Center-46-J.Weeks. 13-R.Greene to JAX 42 for 20 yards (40-K.Drummond, 52-B.Peters).

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.82 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 74, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 32, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model