Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 15 at the 71

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Houston Texans 0

(13:48) 19-B.Anger punts 60 yards to HOU 11, Center-46-C.Tinker. 2-B.Daniels to HOU 22 for 11 yards (25-P.Thompson; 58-J.Tripp).

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.10 EP
73% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 71, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model