Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 16 at the 86

Detroit Lions 7 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(:50) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 58 yards to CHI 28, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 80-M.Mariani to CHI 47 for 19 yards (25-T.Riddick). PENALTY on CHI-27-S.McManis, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at CHI 30.

The Three Options

GO -3.29 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.24 EP
71% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 86, worth -5.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model