Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 13 at the 88

Detroit Lions 24 – Chicago Bears 20

(3:42) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 45 yards to CHI 43, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani.

The Three Options

GO -2.93 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.84 EP
67% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 88, worth -4.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model