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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 15 at the 92

Detroit Lions 10 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(7:00) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 40 yards to DET 48, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 80-M.Mariani to DET 41 for 7 yards (50-T.Lewis).

The Three Options

GO -3.61 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.64 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 92, worth -5.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 50, worth -2.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model