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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 31

Chicago Bears 0 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(9:09) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +2.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.04 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 31, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +0.90 EP
What Happened
  • 67% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 41, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.40 EP