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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 35

Detroit Lions 7 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(:43) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 81-C.Johnson [92-P.McPhee].

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.37 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 35, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +0.68 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 45, worth -1.66 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model