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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 36

Detroit Lions 7 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(7:01) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.07 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 36, worth -1.90 EP
KICK -0.20 EP
What Happened
  • 53% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 46, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP