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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 17 at the 90

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Washington Commanders 6

What Actually Happened

(4:50) 8-D.Jones punts 56 yards to WAS 34, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 39 for 5 yards (56-B.Braman).

The Three Options

GO -3.40 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.43 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 90, worth -5.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 47, worth -2.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model