Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 69

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Washington Commanders 0

(8:44) 8-D.Jones punts 38 yards to WAS 31, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.42 EP
67% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 69, worth -3.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model