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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 26

Philadelphia Eagles 24 – Washington Commanders 38

What Actually Happened

(1:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-S.Bradford pass incomplete short middle to 81-J.Matthews (52-K.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
What Happened
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +3.90 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.66 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 36, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.78 EP