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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 35

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Washington Commanders 38

What Actually Happened

(5:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-S.Bradford pass short middle to 81-J.Matthews to WAS 11 for 24 yards (38-D.Goldson).

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.04 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 35, worth -1.52 EP
KICK +0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 45, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model