Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 75

Washington Commanders 23 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

What Actually Happened

(4:10) 5-T.Way punts 57 yards to PHI 18, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 43-D.Sproles MUFFS catch, touched at PHI 18, and recovers at PHI 21. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 21 for no gain (22-D.Everett).

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.41 EP
52% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 75, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model