4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 86

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Washington Commanders 16

What Actually Happened

(11:12) 8-D.Jones punts 45 yards to WAS 41, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 46 for 5 yards (10-J.Krause).

The Three Options

GO -2.59 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.61 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 86, worth -5.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 44, worth -2.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model