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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 59

Washington Commanders 16 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(12:23) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to PHI 10, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 10 for no gain (22-D.Everett).

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.60 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 59, worth -3.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 18, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP