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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 64

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Washington Commanders 16

What Actually Happened

(:40) 8-D.Jones punts 35 yards to WAS 29, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, downed by PHI-34-K.Barner.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.08 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 64, worth -2.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 22, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model