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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 10

Washington Commanders 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(1:46) 3-D.Hopkins 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.87 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 10, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model