Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 92

Washington Commanders 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

(4:26) 5-T.Way punts 54 yards to PHI 38, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-20-J.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -3.22 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.25 EP
61% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 92, worth -5.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model