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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 90

Washington Commanders 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(12:10) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to PHI 42, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 34-K.Barner to PHI 39 for -3 yards (93-T.Murphy). Penalty on PHI-34-K.Barner, Illegal Substitution, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.28 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 90, worth -5.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.98 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 47, worth -2.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model