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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 76

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(13:41) 6-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to SEA 31, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett. PENALTY on LA-6-J.Hekker, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 31.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.41 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 76, worth -4.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -2.11 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 34, worth -2.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP