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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 25

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(8:15) 4-G.Zuerlein 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +2.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.25 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
What Happened
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 35, worth -2.24 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP