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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 88

Los Angeles Rams 23 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(1:15) 6-J.Hekker punts 36 yards to LA 48, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 16-T.Lockett to LA 35 for 13 yards (34-C.Reynolds).

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.16 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 88, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 46, worth -1.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model