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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 9 at the 48

Los Angeles Rams 16 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(3:10) 6-J.Hekker punts 38 yards to SEA 10, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.35 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 48, worth -2.76 EP
KICK -1.19 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model