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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 8

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Los Angeles Rams 16

What Actually Happened

(:19) 4-S.Hauschka 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +2.26 EP
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.78 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 8, worth +0.00 EP
KICK +2.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.84 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.16 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model