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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 17

Detroit Lions 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:22) 5-M.Prater 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +2.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.16 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +2.09 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP