4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 60

San Francisco 49ers 17 – Detroit Lions 32

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert pass incomplete deep right to 89-V.McDonald.

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.73 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 60, worth -0.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 19, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model