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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 22

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(:40) 9-P.Dawson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.70 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 22, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 32, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model