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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 49

Detroit Lions 17 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(2:48) 6-S.Martin punts 39 yards to SF 10, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 10-B.Ellington.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.85 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.39 EP
KICK -0.95 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP