Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 15 at the 95

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(14:58) 7-M.King punts 43 yards to LV 48, Center-47-T.Gafford, out of bounds. PENALTY on LV-39-K.McGill, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at LV 48.

The Three Options

GO -3.63 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +1.12 EP
70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 95, worth -5.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model