Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 17 at the 77

Las Vegas Raiders 20 – Los Angeles Chargers 20

(:10) 7-M.King punts 65 yards to LAC 12, Center-47-T.Gafford, downed by LV-18-A.Holmes.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +0.15 EP
73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 77, worth -1.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model