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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 54

Las Vegas Raiders 12 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(6:32) 7-M.King punts 44 yards to LAC 10, Center-47-T.Gafford, fair catch by 29-C.Mager.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.17 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP