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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 60

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(3:35) 7-M.King punts 51 yards to LAC 9, Center-47-T.Gafford, downed by LV-22-T.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.04 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 19, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP