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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 50

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(7:11) 7-M.King punts 42 yards to LAC 8, Center-47-T.Gafford, fair catch by 81-J.Herndon.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.90 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.68 EP
KICK -2.00 EP
  • 14% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 86% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model