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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 80

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(9:13) 5-M.Scifres punts 34 yards to LV 46, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 13-J.Ross.

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.86 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 80, worth -4.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.89 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 37, worth -1.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model