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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 61

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(10:22) 7-M.King punts 48 yards to LAC 13, Center-47-T.Gafford, fair catch by 81-J.Herndon.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.51 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model