Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 16 at the 79

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

(12:35) 5-M.Scifres punts 43 yards to LV 36, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 13-J.Ross.

The Three Options

GO -2.82 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.03 EP
72% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 79, worth -4.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model