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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 29

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(:36) 2-J.Lambo 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.33 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 29, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened
  • 67% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.54 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 39, worth -1.32 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model