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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 76

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(3:12) 7-M.King punts 54 yards to LAC 22, Center-47-T.Gafford, downed by LV-54-K.Toomer.

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.79 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 76, worth -3.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model