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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 65

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(4:42) 5-M.Scifres punts 52 yards to LV 13, Center-47-M.Windt. 13-J.Ross to LV 22 for 9 yards (53-K.Conner).

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.60 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 65, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.27 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 23, worth -1.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP