Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 13 at the 54

New York Jets 20 – New England Patriots 20

(:33) 4-R.Quigley punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Purdum, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +0.55 EP
74% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 54, worth -0.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model