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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 35

New England Patriots 13 – New York Jets 20

What Actually Happened

(2:31) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 87-R.Gronkowski to NYJ 9 for 26 yards (25-C.Pryor).

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +3.61 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 35, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 45, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.42 EP